EDITOR'S NOTE: The following rankings and evaluations by FSS PLUS are based on subjective analysis and industry sources, and do not influence, are not influenced by, or are affiliated with the opinions and reports of Future Stars Series scouting and development staff.

With the 2024 Draft in the rearview mirror, several high-ceiling prospects have made their way to campus with their eyes set on becoming the no. 1 pick in 2027. Here are 180+ college freshmen to keep an eye on in 2025 and beyond. 

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1. Charlie Bates, SS -- Stanford
HOMETOWN: Palo Alto, California
HEIGHT: 6-1

WEIGHT: 184

BAT/THROW: L-R

Bates is a smooth operator on the dirt with loose hands, athletic actions and the ability to make every play in all directions. He projects a shortstop moving forward thanks to his fluidity, internal clock, and rhythm that can be tough to find.

Offensively, it's a smooth, left-handed swing with a gap-to-gap approach, some loft and patience, taking the barrel to the zone and going with pitches instead of forcing to his pull-side. That said, when Bates cheats and/or ambushes in batting practice he's shown solid average raw power and he'll get pitchers over the right-field fence. Scouts want to see the body get bigger and stronger as the draft approaches to help ease questions surrounding the direction of the frame. They want to see what the player looks like a bit closer to final physical form. There's projection in the bat as Bates has the lean, wiry body evaluators look for.

Bates was an extremely popular name in the 2024 Draft but went unselected as most Stanford commits do. He'll be a premium name to watch in college baseball over the next three years. 

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Miami Marlins Receive: Infielder Connor Norby, outfielder Kyle Stowers

Baltimore Orioles Receive: Left-handed starting pitcher Trevor Rogers

Really like this deal for Marlins. Miami really only needs one of Norby or Stowers to develop into a role 5 player for this to make sense. If they both end up plateauing as role 4.5 types as utility and fourth-outfielder types, it’ll still help round the roster into form with more athleticism and floor.

For Baltimore, the hope is the organization can help Rogers rediscover some of his lost velocity and production. He’s largely been a low No. 4/No. 5 starter over the past three seasons. His last real impressive campaign was back in 2021. Rogers is arbitration-eligible following this season and will see his salary take a jump. Because he’s not guaranteed anything Baltimore could always flip him in the next few seasons and walk away from the salary escalations when they see fit.

Seattle Mariners Receive: Right-handed relief pitcher JT Chargois

Miami Marlins Receive: Right-handed starting pitcher Will Schomberg

This is a nice add for the Mariners as Chargois as consistently performed above his peripherals over the last four seasons. He’s been remarkably consistent in limiting hard contact and base hits as a whole. He’ll likely slot in as a low-leverage reliever for Seattle, a team dealing with attrition in their bullpen as the season has progressed. He is making $1.2 million this year and is arbitration-eligible in 2025 for the final time. He’ll likely be due close to $2 million, a number Seattle could elect to walk away from instead of offering him another contract if they so see fit.

Schomberg, 23, was an undrafted free agent signing by the Mariners following the 2023 Draft. He racked up 97 strikeouts for Low-A Modesto in 70.1 innings this season before being promoted to High-A Everett. He has a reliever arm swing with a mid-90s fastball at peak that presents above-average carry to the hitter. He mixes in a frisbee slider that has been tremendously effective against right-handed hitters.

Detroit Tigers Receive: Right-handed pitchers Joseph Montalvo and Chase Lee

Texas Rangers Receive: Left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin

The Texas Rangers refuse to fold. And for good reason. Just six games out of the AL West, it’s a division that has been a rollercoaster ride all summer. Chafin is a nice addition to the backend of the Rangers bullpen, a staff that has wavered of late. He’s posted 50 punchouts in just 37 innings this season with 16 walks to boot. His 3.16 ERA and 2.53 ERA points to just how effective he can be in big spots at the end of games.

A 20th rounder in 2021, Montalvo is enjoying a bit of a breakthrough 2024 campaign. He’s a three-pitch starter with a low-to-mid 90s fastball featuring more arm-side tail than vertical tilt. His slider projects at least above average. It’s a low-80s hammer with considerable depth and sweeping action. There’s also a mid-80s changeup with vertical plant and conviction. Lee was a high school shortstop who transformed himself into a reliable arm with budding stuff. He’s sporting a 1.69 ERA at Triple-A this season and could get the call into Detroit’s bullpen down the stretch. His slider has flirted with 3000 rpm at times and flashes above-average traits and shape.

Pittsburgh Pirates Receive: Outfielder Bryan De La Cruz

Miami Marlins Receive: Infielder Garret Forrester, Right-handed pitcher Jun-Seok Shim

Nice piece for a Pirates outfield looking to put together a more formidable lineup after Jack Suwinski‘s untimely struggles in 2024. De La Cruz is a power bat with 18 homers this season. Still just 27 years old, he’s controlled through the 2027 season.

Forrester was one of the more highly regarded pure hitters in the 2023 Draft coming out of Oregon State. He’s limited athletically, but he’ll draw walks, swing at good pitches, and hit for some average and power. He can handle first base and left field. Shim has been dealing with a shoulder injury this season and has not appeared in a game, but was impressive in his eight innings of complex work in 2023 posting 13 strikeouts across 8 innings. Still just 20 years old, he’s got a great frame and a loose, easy operation.

Pittsburgh Pirates Receive: Utility Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Toronto Blue Jays Receive: Infielder Charles McAdoo

I like this deal quite a bit for Toronto. McAdoo has size and physicality and has been a development success in Pittsburgh. There’s usable power and positional versatility even if he won’t grade out better than average at any one spot. The bat will carry this player to the big leagues.

Kiner-Falefa helps fill out a Pirates lineup searching for consistency down the stretch. He can handle any of the infield spots. The Pirates don’t need exceptional offense to get to the offense, just steady enough performance to let their pitching staff due the heavy lifting.

Baltimore Orioles Receive: Outfielder Eloy Jimenez

Chicago White Sox Receive: Right-handed pitcher Trey McGough

Jimenez is more of a lottery ticket than anything for the Orioles. He’s a nice designated hitter who rounds out their bench as a potential late-inning pinch hitter or insurance policy if they lose a bat down the stretch. He’s been hurt most of the year but when he gets hot he can carry a lineup… if he gets the at-bats to get cooking that is.

This is mostly a salary dump for the White Sox who still owed Jimenez close to $6 million through the end of the season. McGough, 26, has a 1.99 ERA across 54.1 innings with 55 strikeouts and 21 walks this season. He profiles as a swingman going forward.

Los Angeles Dodgers Receive: Right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty

Detroit Tigers Receive: Catcher Thayron Liranzo, infielder Trey Sweeney

This is a really nice get for the Dodgers. Flaherty is enjoying a nice bounce back 2024 in which he boasts a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts. He’s striking out more batters than he ever has and is issuing the least amount of walks he ever has too. Flaherty is the insurance policy the Dodgers needed to make a final push this summer with Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler struggling to recapture what they’ve been in the past.

Liranzo is a really nice addition. He was set to rank as the Dodgers’ no. 5 overall prospect in our midseason update. There are still considerable questions on whether or not he can catch at the big league level but few doubt whether or not the raw power will play. It’s ‘plus’ arm strength that could be hidden in a corner outfield spot. More than likely he projects at first base and in a platoon role at catcher.

Sweeney is now 24 years old enjoying a .255/.334/.427 campaign with 13 homers at Triple-A Oklahoma City. He’s striking out more than he really ever has this year and scouts are a bit less bullish on the hit tool than they were a year prior. It’s still solid-average raw power, a left-handed swing and an average shortstop glove despite his bigger-than-typical size for the position. If it all clicks, you’d hope he transforms into a Matt Carpenter type of player.

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For St. Louis

The Cardinals are hoping to bolster their rotation for a stretch-run with righty Erick Fedde coming over from the White Sox. Following a brief stint in the Korean Baseball Organization, Fedde is enjoying a breakthrough campaign with 121.2 innings under his belt pitching to a 3.11 ERA. Fedde has cut his walk-rate down to 2.5/9, easily the best mark of his career. The peripherals and expected statistics like Fedde quite a bit and would suggest what he’s accomplished to this point is sustainable.

Fedde is controlled through the 2025 season and is owed roughly $10 million over the next 14 months.

Outfielder Tommy Pham will head to the Cardinals in the deal as well. Pham has been a productive piece in the outfield for the White Sox this season running a .266/.330/.380 slash. He’s added five homers and boasts walk and strikeout rates both better than league average. Pham can play all three outfield positions and will do a nice job putting the game in motion on the offensive side of the ball.

For Los Angeles

The Dodgers have struggled all season trying to identify who will take the reins at the shortstop position. Those concerns may become a bit more muted as infielder Tommy Edman goes to Los Angeles.

Edman has not played a game at the major league level this season while recovering from wrist surgery and soreness in his ankle. He’s expected to be activated soon, though he’s just now beginning to get reps in the field on a rehab assignment at Double-A. Reports are Dodgers’ scouts were in to see him last week and obviously felt comfortable with where his progress was.

Edman can play shortstop, second base and centerfield once healthy and does have a gold glove to his name.

The Dodgers are also acquiring hard-throwing righty reliever Michael Kopech in the deal. Kopech has always flashed high-leverage upside with a big fastball and streaky slider production. This season he’s appeared in 43 games with 43.2 innings under his belt. He’s punched out 59 batters whilst running a 4.74 ERA. Walks and untimely base hits have marred what has at times been shutdown stuff.

For Chicago

The White Sox are reportedly getting a quartet of players from the Dodgers headlined by 2B/OF Miguel Vargas. Chicago is reportedly also getting third baseman Alexander Albertus and second baseman Jeral Perez in the deal.

The White Sox continue to chase prospect hauls this deadline season as their rebuild carries on. Vargas, 24, has been a rather large piece of the puzzle for the Dodgers this season having appeared in 30 games. He’s currently slashing .239/.313/.423 with three homers having played all of his innings in the outfield. Vargas has legitimate upside with average bat speed and a rather polished approach at the plate. He’s got an optimized swing as evidenced by a ground ball rate near 30 percent.

Vargas has become far more pull-side oriented this season and it’s actually sapped some of his on-base tool. One could make the argument Vargas’ launch angles are a bit too steep considering his relative lack of raw power, but playing in Chicago with a shorter left field porch could result in better outcomes for the former Cuban international signee.

Considering his above average arm strength and above average speed, Vargas could profile in left field or centerfield going forward and may even get reps on the infield once again on the Southside.

Perez headlines the prospects going back to Chicago. He was set to rank as the no. 15 prospect in the Dodgers system in our midseason rankings. Fresh off an appearance in the Futures Game in Texas, Perez was running a .264/.380/.420 slash at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. He’s added ten homers at 15 doubles. Perez lacks prototypical size and as a right-handed hitter is generally considered to lack impact ceiling. There’s is some raw power and bat speed here.

Perez also showcases strong lateral mobility at this early stage in his career allowing him to grab reps at second base on occasion. He gets the most out of his tools and projects a potential role 45 third baseman or utility bat at the big league level.

Albertus is the lottery ticket in the group, a 19-year-old infield prospect enjoying a monster year across two levels. While it hasn’t been quite as gaudy a go of things at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga in 19 games, Albertus played 32 games in the ACL prior running a .342/.479/.460 slash with 27 walks and 20 strikeouts across 143 plate appearances. He’s flashed solid average raw power projection and above average arm strength that should stay at the hot corner.

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The Rays have thus far acquired Lesko, Gonzalez and Bush Jr. to go along with outfielders Aidan Smith, Matthew Etzel, infielder Mac Horvath, and pitchers Jackson Baumeister and Brody Hopkins. All this, plus a player to be named later from Seattle. Every single player listed above will be featured in our midseason Rays Top 30 prospect list (so far).

It stands to reason they’re not done dealing yet either.

For San Diego

While not a household name, Jason Adam has been one of the most consistent relievers in baseball over the last three years. Adam, who turns 33 years old next week, has thrown 47 innings this season accruing 50 punch outs and walking just 16 hitters. His 0.894 WHIP ranks among the best in the American League for bullpen arms.

Adam is one of the premier arms in the league in terms of limiting base hits from the opposition. His 5.0 H/9 ranks among the best in the league.

The Padres will likely use Adam in high-leverage situations. He features a full menu of pitches with a mid-90s four-seamer featuring above average command at the top of the zone. Adam commands an above average slider and above average changeup beautifully to their break-corner quadrants. There’s also a sweeper that’s more sparingly, but has been effective in getting right-handed pitchers out in front.

Adam is controlled through the 2026 season.

For Tampa Bay

The Rays have a nice little prospect trio coming back in exchange for Adam. Lesko was the Padres no. 4 prospect in our preseason rankings. Bush ranked 17 while Gonzalez was the No. 25 prospect in San Diego’s system. All three were still going to rank inside the top 3o in our midseason rankings with considerable jumps for Bush and Gonzalez.

Lesko is the prize of this crop, at least on the surface. The 2022 first round pick has struggled to regain his shine since undergoing Tommy John surgery when he was drafted. Lesko’s fastball velocity and fastball command have both backtracked rather aggressively since arriving to pro ball. The four-seamer averages 93 mph, though he was more 94-97 mph as a prep. It’s a pitch that continues to feature above average shape and bat-missing metrics but getting that pitch to play up to its potential has been a struggle. Lesko has 52 walks in 69.2 innings pitched at High-A Fort Wayne. He does have 79 strikeouts to go along with the inflated walk rate.

Lesko throws a mid-70s curveball that possesses intriguing shape, but needs to be thrown more firm. There’s a low-80s changeup that flashes plus characteristics and average command. Lesko’s slider is largely average in shape and metrics, but is a stiffer pitch than his two more refined secondaries. Adding more sweep and/or vertical plane on that pitch will continue to be a priority in his development.

Still just 20 years old, Lesko has a ton of upside and development ahead of him. Many scouts felt Lesko was one of the better pitching prospects they’d seen prior to injury in his high school career. There’s still a ton of pedigree here. He won’t need to be added to the 40 man roster for protection from the Rule 5 draft until after the 2026 season so Tampa Bay can take their time.

Gonzalez, 18, has an intriguing set of tools despite struggling to perform on the offensive end at this early stage in his career. The skills behind the plate have long stood out going back to high school. It’s a 70-grade arm and improving framing/blocks. As far as catching prospects go, Gonzalez is as good a bet as any to stick behind the plate. There’s above average power and physicality in the box, but he’s running a .205/.322/.230 slash with zero homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28 percent at Class-A Lake Elsinore.

Gonzalez is also running a ground ball rate north of 43 percent. There’s work to do on the offensive end but he won’t turn 19 until after the season ends.

Bush Jr. was one of the fastest players in the Padres organization. It’s borderline elite speed. He’s impressed thus far for High-A Fort Wayne to the tune of a .272/.362/.347 slash. Bush simply doesn’t strike out allowing his speed to come into play on the bases. He already has 43 stolen bases in just 86 games played this season.

There’s some bat speed and projection in his profile though scouts do not believe he’ll ever grow into more than below average game power. It’s a line-drive swing with ground ball rates that have floated near 50 percent for much of his career. There are legitimate centerfield tools here with the bloodlines and projection to suggest he may gradually grow into a bit more impact.

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For Boston

Jansen, 29, has been one of the steadiest catchers in baseball over the last few seasons despite never locking down a full-time role in Toronto. He’s in the midst of a .212/.303/.369 campaign with six homers in the 62 games he’s been a part of. The Blue Jays have struggled to get both Jansen and Alejandro Kirk into games together over the past three seasons, however Jansen has consistently found a way to produce at least 1.5 fWAR per season going back to 2021. In fact, despite not having played in over 100 games even once in the last four seasons, Jansen still has the 12th-most fWAR for catchers during that span. He’s been remarkably consistent and valuable when he’s been in the lineup.

A throwback to yesteryear in this boom-or-bust era, the former 16th round pick is running an 18.4 percent strike out rate and an 11 percent walk rate. He puts the game in motion and punishes mistakes.

It could be argued Jansen is currently having his worst offensive year since 2020, but the peripherals still like him and a resurgent second half would not come as any sort of surprise. He’s as steady as they come.

Jansen is an average catcher with average arm strength. He has fringy pop times and isn’t the most decorated backstop in terms of holding the run game, but he lays on grenades and blocks balls in the dirt better than most of his peers.

Jansen is controlled through the end of this season and it set to hit free agency this winter.

For Toronto

The Blue Jays have a nice little prospect trio coming back in exchange for just two months of Jansen. Infielders Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino, as well as minor league RHP Gilberto Batista, are heading Toronto in the deal.

Coffey, 20, is enjoying a bit of a breakthrough 2024 season after underwhelming in his first couple seasons in professional ball. Coffey, a second round pick by Boston in 2022, is slashing.238/.321/.463 for High-A Greenville this year. His 14 homers are more than double his original career-high of six from 2023. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in Coffey’s game but he’s growing into significant power and could profile as a power-first third baseman when all is said and done.

Paulino, 22, is a left-handed hitter with a bunch of fringy to average tools. He ranked no. 14 in the Red Sox system in our preseason top 30 and was set to rank no. 17 in our midseason update. He’s a performer and a gamer who gets the most out of the physical traits he has. Paulino is currently running a .263/.349/.391 slash with just three homers at Double-A Portland. His batted-ball data has backed up despite an impressive ground ball rate under 30 percent. Paulino’s versatility and polished left-handed approach should get him to the big leagues, though he’s unlikely to feature much impact in the box.

Batista, 19, is still developing in the Florida Complex League, though he’s shown punch out stuff and projects a fly-ball pitcher. It’s a four-pitch mix with a fastball touching 96, two breaking balls and the early clay of a changeup. It’s a starter operation, though Batista has battled below average control and command this season as evidenced by his 13 walks in just 20 innings pitched. He’s several years away, but it is pretty exceptional arm talent.

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For New York

Chisholm, 26, is arguably enjoying the best year of his career running a .249/.323/.407 slash. He’s hit 13 homers and is approaching a career-high in stolen bases (22). While his offensive impact doesn’t quite match the 136 wRC+ he posted in an abbreviated 60 games from 2022, Chisholm has seen considerable improvements in his plate appearances posting career-bests in walk rate and strikeout rate. He’s also posting a barrel rate of 10.7 percent; the best mark of his career. The argument can be made he’s coming into his own as he approaches his peak.

The move to Yankee Stadium should be a huge boon for the left-handed slugger. While he’s only got 13 homers to show for his 2024 campaign thus far, according to Statcast he would have 19 at this stage if he were playing his home games in New York.

Chisholm is controlled through the 2026 season and will almost certainly replace Gleyber Torres at second base in 2025 and beyond as the incumbent infielder reaches free agency this winter. New York acquired a left-handed hitting, up-the-middle profile with 20/20 potential.

For Miami

Miami will receive a trio of prospects for Chisholm headlined by catcher Agustín Ramírez.

Ramirez, 22, is the prize of this deal. He ranked as the no. 18 prospect in the Yankees in our preseason rankings and was set to rank no. 5 in our midseason update. Ramirez has had a breakthrough 2024 campaign and is now considered one of the better catching prospects in the sport. He’s long been revered for a beautifully violent right-handed swing that carries damage to all fields. Pitch selection has been streaky at best, but pulling the trigger on fastballs in the strike zone has resulted in very loud barrels. Ramirez presently carries a .269/.358/.505 slash with 20 homers across Double-A and Triple-A this season.

Ramirez is a mostly a bat-only prospect with some concerns whether his athleticism will be able to stick behind the plate. There’s above average arm strength here, but lateral mobility and blocking have been a developmental focus. Regardless of the defense, Ramirez’s bat will carry his profile to the big leagues. He should make his debut in 2025 at the absolute latest. He is already on the 40-man roster and could be the next man up should Miami need help behind the plate.

Infielder Jared Serna, 22, will also go to the Marlins in the deal. Serna ranked as the no. 17 prospect in the Yankees system in the preseason and was set to rank similarly in the midseason update. His versatility carries value, though most see Serna as a second baseman full-time should he ever reach that amount of playing time at the big league level. He’s a sum-of-his-parts type of prospect who does not have a carrying tool, but should provide some value in all three phases of the game. He’s currently running a .253/.341/.444 slash at High-A Hudson Valley with 13 homers and eleven stolen bases. Serna is probably about ready to be challenged with a Double-A assignment.

Rounding out the package will be 19-year-old second baseman Abrahan Ramirez. Signed out of Venezuela as an international free agent a few years ago, Ramirez is annihilating the Florida Complex League boasting a.348/.447/.513 slash with two homers to boot. He’s a hit-over-power utility profile with an undersized frame and average tools from an athletic perspective. He is still at least a few years away, but has shown well from a bat-to-ball perspective. Ramirez was set to rank toward the bottom of our top 30 midseason prospect rankings for New York.

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For Chicago

While the dreams of Pearson developing into a starting pitcher died in 2021 due to injuries and control woes, he’s rebuilt some of his value on the mound with big stuff coming out of the bullpen. He’s currently running a 5.63 ERA, though he’s been a touch unlucky as evidenced by a 4.62 FIP and .356 opposing BABIP. Pearson has 40 innings under his belt this season and will likely reach a career-high in innings-pitched in 2024.

Primarily a two-pitch specialist, Pearson throws his four-seamer and slider 86 percent of the time. He’ll flirt with triple digits on the heater although it’s too often negated by catching the meaty part of the plate. Improving his command for that pitch could unlock a new gear and potential high-leverage upside. The slider however, is a real weapon. It’s an upper-80s breaker with shorter two-plane break. That pitch has produced a near 41-percent whiff rate this season and represents a true out pitch. He’ll also occasionally flip in a curveball, though that pitch too often misses arm-side and can get him in trouble when it backs up.

Pearson comes with more than two years of control and won’t be a free agent until the 2026 season ends. He still possesses 8th inning leverageable upside if control for the fastball ever comes.

For Toronto

Toronto is acquiring left field prospect Yohendrick Pinango, 22, in the deal.

Pinango ranked as the no. 32 overall prospect in the Cubs system in our preseason ranks. He was set to jump into the top 20 in our midseason update. Pinango’s batted-ball data has ticked up in recent seasons and now projects at least above average raw power. His overall hit tool profile has also ticked up in 2024 at High-A South Bend, though it’s been tested and streaky flashing some 2023 trends since being promoted to Double-A Tennessee. He’s currently slashing .223/.316/.345 at Double-A with five homers. His 12.3 percent strikeout rate and 16.4 percent walk rate have scouts bullish the offensive tools will once again be represented in the slash line.

As a whole, Pinango has shown improved pitch selection and in-zone metrics this season. His limited athleticism will keep him in left field at the next level.

Importantly, Pinango will need to be added to the 40-man this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

Toronto is also acquiring shortstop Josh Rivera in the deal. Rivera, a third round pick in the 2023 draft, ranked as the no. 24 prospect in the Cubs system this preseason. He was not going to make the top-30 cut in our midseason update. Rivera has struggled to adjust to bigger stuff from opposing pitchers and was slashing .169/.277/.260 at Double-A Tennessee. His longer bat path has led to more whiffs than what he showed at the University of Florida ultimately negating what is solid-average raw power. The defensive actions remain strong and Rivera has done a nice job not allowing his woes at the plate to leak into his reliability on the dirt.

Considering the control years, athleticism, up-the-middle profile and lack of pressure to be placed on the 40-man roster, the case can be made Rivera is still a considerably better prospect than Pinango from a value/gamble perspective.

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For Seattle

Yimi García is a very nice add for a Mariners bullpen that has found itself surprisingly thin down the stretch. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA and a 2.64 FIP this season. Garcia has logged 30 innings this season and is boasting the highest K/9 of his career (12.60). He ranks 12th in baseball in K/9 in terms of relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. Better still, his 29.6% K-BB ratio ranks 7th among the same candidate pool. He should immediately insert into the backend of the Mariners bullpen and should compliment high-leverage specialist Andres Munoz nicely toward the end of games.

Of note, Garcia has pitched just twice since returning from the IL after suffering a nerve issue in his right elbow during a save opportunity against Cleveland on June 16. Those two appearances went off without a hitch and Garcia actually averaged his highest average fastball velocity since late April on Wednesday at 97.5 mph.

Seattle’s bullpen has largely ranked in the top-third of the sport this season but has wavered a bit in recent weeks. With a lack of offense in Seattle the team figures to play in a number of close games down the stretch. Adding to their tired a tested bullpen seemed like a foregone conclusion entering the trade deadline.

Garcia is a rental and will become a free agent at the end of the season.

For Toronto

Clase, 22, ranked as our no. 11 prospect in the Mariners organization in preseason rankings and was set to rank no. 15 in the post-deadline midseason rankings. He made his major league debut this spring and is currently running a .195/.233/.220 slash in 43 plate appearances with the big league club. He’s been far more productive at Triple-A Tacoma where he boasts a .274/.373/.483 line with ten homers and 34 stolen bases.

The book on Clase is speed and sneaky thump. He’s still on the younger side but is physically maxed and does not figure to grow into much more physical tools. He’s a muscled-up corner outfielder with solid bat speed when he’s able to get to it in games. He projects a fourth outfielder in the big leagues with 60- to 70-grade speed that will undoubtedly play on the bases. He’s been a steal merchant throughout his minor league career as evidenced by the 79 bags he took in 2023. Clase has a ways to go in terms of defensive instincts and eye-test comfort in the outfield. His speed does make up for some noticeable warts in the routes department. The hit tool will ultimately dictate how high Clase’s role can climb. At times he looks overmatched, but with more seasoning and exposure to big league pitching Clase may grow more comfortable with what he’s seeing on a nightly basis. The hope would be that unlocks an average hit tool and the ability to get his ‘A-Swing’ off more consistently whilst projecting toward the back-third of a lineup.

The Blue Jays appear sunk in the playoff race in 2024 and changes needed to be made. They will be without Kevin Kiermaier (retirement) in 2025 and George Springer has lost a step too. Clase gives the Blue Jays options in the field and late in games and could ultimately blossom into a solid Role 5 position player if given the time and reps necessary to succeed.

The Mariners will also send catcher Jacob Sharp, 22, to the Blue Jays in the deal. Sharp was a 17th round selection in the 2023 Draft and is currently running a .255/.339/.435 slash at Class-A Modesto. Sharp has solid bat-to-ball skills and the ability to stick behind the plate going forward.

Trading Garcia all but signals to the league the Blue Jays’ intention to sell expiring contracts this deadline.

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For Seattle

This was simply a deal that needed to be made. While Arozarena’s .211/.319/.384 slash won’t inject immediate enthusiasm into the Mariners’ situation, a closer look into his production since June 1 tells a different story. Since June 1, Arozarena is slashing .290/.402/.517 with a 166 wRC+. He’s been one of the more impactful hitters in the American League the last seven weeks. That stretch has his wRC+ up to 109 on the season. He immediately becomes the clubhouse leader for wRC+ in the Mariners lineup.

The Mariners will control Arozarena through the 2026 season though he won’t come terribly cheap. He’s already making $8.1 million in year two of his Super 2 arbitration, a number that figures to jump closer to $10 million in 2025 and potentially closer to $15 million in 2026. Should Seattle get the career-norm version of Arozarena over the next two-and-a-half seasons, an annual 3.0 fWAR contributor, it’s money and resources well spent. Arozarena’s bat will undoubtedly be tested in T-Mobile Park, however. He’s an extreme pull-hitter who relies on efficient launch angles to get the most of his above-average bat speed. To date, Arozarena has a career .289/.333/.511 slash at his new home ballpark with three home runs in eleven games.

For Tampa Bay

The acquisition of Hopkins and Smith should not be discounted as both are extreme helium prospects. Our midseason prospect rankings are set to come out in a couple weeks. Smith was set to rank as the no. 13 prospect in Seattle’s system while Hopkins was set to rank no. 14. At time of publish, Smith would rank no. 6 in the Rays system. Hopkins would rank no. 7.

In Smith, 20, the Rays are acquiring a potential five-tool outfielder. He’s a plus runner with above-average bat speed, centerfield instincts and an above average throwing arm. The bat has taken a step forward this season evidenced by his .284/.402/.470 slash as a teenager at Class-A Modesto. Smith does struggle with swing-and-miss at times evidenced by a 20-percent whiff rate on pitches inside the strike zone. That said, he’s cut his strikeout percentage down by more than five percent this year, now under 25 percent. Smith is running a 22 percent chase rate this season and has fared far better identifying spin than he did a year prior. He’s hit nine homers and stolen 28 bases. If the hit tool continues on the linear trajectory it has shown thus far, he projects dynamic performer who can hit anywhere in the lineup, though his size and strength point more toward a middle-of-the-lineup run producer. Smith was a fourth round selection by the Mariners in 2023, though he was paid like a second-round pick.

Hopkins, 22, is about as exciting a pitching prospect as you’ll find, especially when considering how well the Rays have done in squeezing the most value out of unique arms. He’s a metric darling with a near-five foot release height and well-above average extension. He’s generally 95-96 but will touch 99 in shorter stints. Hopkins generates more vertical ride on his fastball than most of his peers with a similar slot, a trait that allows his four-seamer to really play at the letters. There’s also a two-seamer with more arm-side tailing action, though Tampa Bay may elect to scrap that pitch if Hopkins eventually moves into the bullpen.

Hopkins’ sweeper is pro-ready, thrown firm in the 87 mph band. He generates significant two-plane tilt with impressive vertical action when considering the velocity of the pitch as well as his arm slot. There’s also a curveball here with slightly more depth and very minimal horizontal plane. Toss in his cutter in the low 90s as a fringier changeup and it’s a rather complete menu to attack hitters. Hopkins is running a 4.30 percent walk-rate this season and that’ll need to come down over time if he hopes to capitalize on his starting pitcher ceiling. That said, he just started pitching three years ago and the case can be made he’s still rather green.

Seattle is also including a player to be named later and while it’s highly unlikely that player will be one of their top six-to-eight prospects, it stands to reason the list of potential options could include any number of position players set to rank in the 11-20 range. Position players like Michael Arroyo and Ben Williamson, as well as interesting arms such as Michael Morales, Jeter Martinez and Reid VanScoter all make some sense, if only from an entirely presumptive angle.

The post TRADE ANALYSIS: Mariners get Randy Arozarena; surrender Aidan Smith, Brody Hopkins, PTBNL appeared first on Future Stars Series.